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Our last publication of the year lets the charts do the talking about why we think the consumer post-pandemic momentum is fading along with the labor market....
27 Dec 2024
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Our outlook for Fed policy in 2025 discusses our expectations for interest rates, the Fed’s balance sheet and the 2025 strategic review....
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At the beginning of the 1970s, investors flocked to a select group of growth stocks loosely known as the Nifty Fifty. These companies’ earnings growth was considered so dependable that they were touted as “one-decision” stocks that a shareholder would never have to sell....
20 Dec 2024
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Any additional fiscal tightening and further rate hikes might serve as a band-aid, but not a cure, to Brazilian markets. The country’s risk assets and the currency will continue to face headwinds from an impending recession, a strengthening USD, weak commodity prices, and worsening public debt dynam...
20 Dec 2024
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As the US faces renewed government shutdown risk, I thought it was prudent to highlight two developments to GeoMacro clients....
20 Dec 2024
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Understanding the risks across Private Credit will enable investors to be offensive, not just with sizing but across their total portfolio. Senior Direct Lending is not risk-free, Private Credit is not systemic, and a liquidity crisis will not be born in this asset class....
19 Dec 2024
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A confluence of both supply and demand factors contributed to the natural gas rally over the past few months. This trend could continue for a while longer. However, cyclical and structural factors ultimately argue against a sustained increase in prices....
19 Dec 2024