MacroQuant continues to recommend underweighting equities and overweighting bonds. This is consistent with the Global Investment Strategy Team's decision to downgrade global equities to underweight in late June....
MacroQuant continues to recommend underweighting equities and overweighting bonds. This is consistent with the Global Investment Strategy Team's decision to downgrade global equities to underweight in late June....
According to our Bank Credit Analyst service, an inflection point in the relative performance of US stocks is not likely to occur over the coming 6-12 months. A recession favors US equities in common currency terms barring substantially less global ex-US earnings weakness than has historically occur...
After surprising to the upside in July on higher energy costs, Eurozone CPI resumed its deceleration in August. Headline and core CPI declined from 2.6% y/y to 2.2% and from 2.9% to 2.8%, respectively. Energy prices contracted 0.3% y/y from July’s 1.2% increase, however services inflation, which is ...
In Section I, we discuss the economic and financial market outlook in the wake of Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech. Equity investors may pursue a bullish rate-cut narrative for a few months, and it is possible that the economic data will remain consistent with a soft landing for a time. However, ...
According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint Strategy service, the post-pandemic US economy has inverted from its usual ‘demand-constrained’ state to a highly unusual ‘supply-constrained’ state. This inversion is still a ways from normalizing, with labor demand still exceeding supply by 2.2 million jobs...
We update our long-term return assumptions for public and private assets. A global portfolio is likely to return only 4.4% a year over the next decade, compared to 6.9% in the past. Investors either need to lower their return expectations, or take more risk. On top of this annual update, we are also...
Chinese property developers will require at least RMB 500 billion in additional government funding to prevent further declines in housing completions for the rest of 2024. However, without addressing the underlying challenges, any new rescue measures similar to those announced in May are unlikely to...
