China missed the chance to change course on economic policy and now it faces rising social instability and western protectionism. This policy approach implies it is not afraid of escalating strategic conflicts in East Asia. Investors should continue to underweight Greater Chinese assets. Any US-Chin...
Over the next three months, US equity investors face slowing economic growth, the unwinding of carry trades, skepticism about GAI, uncertainty about the Fed easing campaign, and a run-up to the Presidential election. Empirically, each event has led to lower returns and heightened volatility. A combi...
In this monthly review, we give our take on where bond yields and the dollar are headed. This is within the lens of revisiting our fundamental indicators....
The market backdrop changed a lot between the preparation and the publication of our equity downgrade report. We publish this companion Insight to help investors navigate the new environment....
Over the past few weeks, global equities have been hit by rising scepticism over the bullish AI narrative and increasing concerns over global growth. Stocks should stabilize in the near term, but the medium-term direction is to the downside. We expect the S&P 500 to drop to 3750 in 2025 and the 10-y...
Harris picked Walz to patch up her weak side in the electorally vital Midwest. But the US election will continue to weigh on risk appetite, stocks, and high-beta assets because the odds of a single-party sweep are at least 50%, probably higher. Policy uncertainty and risk premiums will rise, not fal...
The prices of multiple financial assets have failed to break above their technical resistances. When this occurs, a breakdown ensues. In brief, global risk assets remain vulnerable. We are upgrading Chinese onshore stocks from neutral to overweight and offshore ones from underweight to neutral withi...
