FICC

A spike in economic uncertainty explains the recent move lower in Treasury yields. Given the resilience of global growth, we expect yields to rise as uncertainty ebbs in the coming months.

Special Report

Today, on a tactical basis, we are moving our allocation on EM hard currency bonds to neutral from underweight. In this Special Report, we elaborate on the reasons leading to this decision.

A benchmark overall duration stance is still warranted, as central banks will maintain exceptionally accommodative monetary policies to offset potential Brexit-related shocks to confidence.

Some near-term upside in Treasury yields is very likely as flight to safety flows begin to unwind. However, given that global growth divergences remain in place, we will continue to look for an opportunity to increase duration on any meaningful back-up in yields.

Government bond yields will remain at depressed levels as investors stay in safe haven assets given the lack of clarity on the next steps in the Brexit saga.

At the margin Brexit only serves to reinforce the divergences in global growth that were already in place. Maintain duration at benchmark and look to increase duration exposure on any meaningful back-up in Treasury yields. Corporate spreads are still not attractive, but any Brexit related sell-off could present an opportunity to initiate a tactical overweight.

The secular stagnation narrative is gaining traction amongst the FOMC. Expect further downward revisions to longer run FOMC interest rates forecasts, toward levels already discounted in the Treasury curve.

We prefer to fade the recent fall in yields by moving to neutral on U.K. Gilts and underweight Australia, while maintaining a benchmark overall stance on portfolio duration.

At current levels, Treasury yields are consistent with our assessment of fair value. Further, the Fed's Labor Market Conditions Index does not suggest an imminent recession. Expect payrolls to stabilize above levels consistent with further progress on wage growth and inflation, allowing the Fed to hike rates later this year.

For now, maintain a benchmark duration stance leading into the June 23 U.K. Brexit vote, favoring Treasuries and (especially) Gilts over Bunds and JGBs.